THE RACE – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  The first Democratic debate is tomorrow night.  Aren't you excited?  I am curious to see what the ratings are.  Recall that the first Republican debate drew 24 million viewers, a record.  I think it's quite possible the Dems can fall considerably short of that, but I could be very wrong.  I mean, what's the attraction?  A corrupt older woman versus a Vermont socialist? 

In the meantime, CBS is out with the latest polling on the Republican side.  From The Hill:

Donald Trump maintains his spot atop the 2016 GOP presidential field, according to a new CBS News poll that shows outsider candidates drawing 63 percent of the vote.

The real-estate mogul garners 27 percent support in the poll, the same number he drew in the last edition of the poll one month ago.

Ben Carson continues to place second with 21 percent support, down 2 points since the last poll.

Carson is followed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) with 9 percent support and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) with 8 percent support. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush and former business executive Carly Fiorina tie for fifth place with 6 percent support each.

Trump, Carson, Cruz, and Fiorina – who are all running on an anti-establishment platform – combine for 63 percent of the vote.

Eighty-four percent of respondents say Trump has strong leadership qualities, compared to 72 percent who said the same of Carson, and 60 percent who thought Fiorina was a good leader.

However, Trump is also perceived to be the least honest candidate, with only 53 percent of voters saying they can trust the businessman, compared to 81 percent who say they trust Carson and 60 percent who trust Fiorina.

Trump is also the least favorable candidate in the field, with 53 percent of respondents in the survey saying they do not view him positively. Bush places second in that category, with a 48 percent unfavorable rating.

The poll sampled 419 Republican primary voters by telephone from Oct. 4 – 8. The margin of error is 5 percent.

COMMENT:  I'm struck by the small number in the sample.  Polling 419 people in a nation of 320 million doesn't tell me all that much.

This race is still shaking out.  The frontrunner only has 27 percent.  Some 73 percent aren't for him.

October 12,  2015